Kathmandu, June 11: A recent study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has projected lower than normal rainfall across several countries, including Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026 has cautioned that the risk of flash floods, landslides and other hazards remains high despite the projection of lower than normal rainfall.
A below-normal monsoon forecast for parts of HKH in 2026 is not expected to reduce disaster risks, with scientists warning that short bursts of intense rainfall, rising temperatures, and growing water stress could make the season increasingly dangerous, according to ICIMOD.
“Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,” ICIMOD stated in a press release, while calling communities and authorities to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories.
The combination of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures is expected to increase both drought and flood risks during the same season. Long dry spells may be followed by sudden heavy downpours, creating conditions for flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountain areas, the outlook stated.
The report has mentioned that warmer conditions are also likely to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability. “Lower snow persistence at the start of the season further weakens the region’s natural water buffer, making river systems and groundwater recharge more sensitive to rainfall variability.”
The report suggested that preparedness now requires stronger coordination between government, technical agencies, and local authorities.
The outlook highlights increasing pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems, as well as heightened vulnerability in both rural and urban areas, reads the press statement by ICIMOD.
Scientists also stress the need for stronger early warning systems and impact-based forecasting.
The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 is based on forecasts from multiple global and regional climate models and is intended to support governments, disaster management agencies, and communities in planning and preparedness ahead of the June–September monsoon season.#nepal #rss
